This is basically why everyone says we have reached the “Point of No Return” on CC #Climatecrises
Global heating faster and faster, 2010-20 was the hottest decade on record 1.1 °C (WMO)
#TimeForAction #COP25 #Article6 #COP26 – #UNITEBEHINDTHESDGs
Unfortunately for stability and resilience of our planet requires much less climate sensitivity. Our immediate existence is in peril.
Yes it’s true, we have to accept to surrender to defeat. From here a curvy uncertain road in two directions, time is up what do you do?
Here it is; Explaining the cascade of tipping points in report, inter-connected #Climatedots:
Global common cascade of tipping points to be exceeded (triggered at low levels of global warming) even between 1 and 2 °C of warming breaking many planetary boundaries;
West Antarctica’s ‘grounding line’ where ice, ocean and bedrock meet is retreating irreversibly.
Greenland’s ice sheet to be doomed at 1.5 °C of heating, which to happen as soon as 2030.
The Arctic (warming at least twice as quick as the global average), indicating that, at 2 °C of heating, the region has a 10–35% chance of becoming largely ice-free in summer amplifying regional warming.
99% of tropical corals are projected to be lost if global average temperature rises by 2 °C.
Biosphere tipping points to trigger abrupt carbon release back to the atmosphere or strong cloud feedbacks to cause a unknown global key tipping point (a cloud-resolving model published this year suggests that the abrupt break-up of stratocumulus cloud (above about 1,200 parts per million of CO2) could have resulted in scary 8 °C of global heating), this will amplify climate change further.
The Amazon tipping point ranges from 40% deforestation to just 20% forest-cover loss.
Dieback of North American boreal forests, turning some regions from a carbon sink to a carbon source.
Permafrost across the Arctic is beginning to irreversibly thaw and release carbon dioxide and methane.
15% slowdown since the mid-twentieth century of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)!
The remaining emissions budget (#carbonbudget) to be all but erased already.
Humans strongly forcing the system, with atmospheric CO2 concentration and global temperature increasing at rates that are an order of magnitude.
Proof
#ClimateALARM: DO THE MATHS
E = R × U = p × D × τ / T
The situation is an emergency if both risk and urgency are high. If reaction time is longer than the intervention time left (τ / T > 1), we have lost control.
The report argue that the intervention time left to prevent tipping could already have shrunk towards zero, whereas the reaction time (τ) to achieve net zero emissions is 30 years at best. Have we already lost control of whether tipping happens?
The rate at which damaging tipping cascades accumulates from global mean surface temperature tipping are an order of magnitude.
#TimeForAction #COP25 #Article6 #COP26 – #UNITEBEHINDTHESDGs
Source: Nature.com – http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0
