#DRR Disaster Risk Reduction – #DutytoProtect

Africa – Americas – Arab States – Asia & Pacific – Central Asia – Europe

 

When all the ice has melted, first I will be Warm and then I will be Cold.

Stay up-to-date with the analysis and outcomes of Disaster Risk Reduction and International Law Symposium 2017 by our Reading blog posts.

#ClimateChance #ClimateChance2017 #Agadir #COP22 #COP23 #ONG #Climat #Humanrights

1 #DRR Disaster Risk Reduction – “#Duty-to-Protect”

Disaster law initiatives to combat climate change – “Duty-to-Protect”

How to grapple with the increasing frequency and severity of a wide array of both ‘human-made’ and ‘natural’ disasters.

Experts say we have three years to save the planet

International law must comply by 2020 latest with national #disasterlaw

Under Sendai Framework priority 2 – Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk (Duty to protect);

Global and regional levels
28. To achieve this, it is important:
(a) To guide action at the regional level through agreed regional and sub-regional strategies and mechanisms for cooperation for disaster risk reduction, as appropriate, in the light of the present Framework, in order to foster more efficient planning, create common information systems and exchange good practices and programmes for cooperation and capacity development, in particular to address common and trans-boundary disaster risks;

Are disaster management services the main duty-bearers to roll out DRR?

Break down legal fragment between DRR, Climate adaptation, the Tree proposal, Sendai framework, the SDGs, also between nuclear regulations.

Land use and forestry proposal for 2021-2030 – Forest laws to reduce deforestation.

National framework regulations needed now in;

  • Land use and urban planning
  • Building codes – Retrofits of existing buildings, Exemplary new buildings and Efficient equipment
  • Environment and resource management
  • Safety standards

 

Connect DRR and climate change, after New Zeeland 2010 Building code demolish or rescue.

2011 International convention from prevention of pollution from ships.

Mexico mainstreamed DRR law in all sectors. France mayor sent to prison for ignoring DDR laws.

Civil protection law = Disaster management (law to much focus on response)

Sectoral laws like Climate change adoption laws and development approvals important in rural and sub-urban areas. Linkage between environment laws and climate change laws.

Why do we need a lawyer? Protection of rights links to disaster

Legal disaster

Customs law disaster

Why compulsion and force?

Why international? Paragraph 14 Cooperation legal and not

Consent Capacity Building (ILC) framework adopted 2 months after Sendai 2018 next

Legislation/Regulations Is it a Self form of disaster risk reduction DRR?

Can monitoring DRR indicators alone identify (urban/rural) hazards and exercise disaster relief law of public response?

Disaster Ill-star

1950-60 Defense did research on disaster

Values scope and scale of a loss

Volition choices in relation to hazards

Valocity policies response times’ project, risk, predict – time horizon

Vicinity geography also social cultural economic, legal overlays

Vulnerabilities = impact outcome (origin)

Viewpoints philosophy

Victims disaster label, response label (victim-hood)

Katrina –> Depress obsess –> Super dome

Victims vs. Cash / Charity patterns

Natural more emo than man-made disaster

2003 August heatwave 14 802 (living on climbing 7th floor) – Time frame Chernobyl 100 (1 000 cancer)

Does climate legislation and regulation protect Who is an (urban/rural) disaster victim, healthy/sick people?

 

Core DRR mitigation and prevention response to disasters and hazards – linked to relief union

1st November 1755 Lisbon earthquake 1/3 loss – Urbanisation important

Voltaire unforeseeable and random – Urbanisation important

1927 National Relief Union

Preventive measures against disasters

UN early warning systems – Iran earth quake 1963

Pollution Sustainable Development

1980 Prevention Natural Disaster Reduction

1992 Rio declaration

UNFCCC – Framework Climate Change

Kyoto protocol

1991 Resolution 46182

Yokohama Framework

Millennium change

Climate change, Human rights, Environment law

Sendai

PREVENTION at activities and measures to avoid existing and new disaster risks.

MITIGATION de-licensing or minimizing of impact of hazardous events.

PREPARDENESS capacity developed by governments responds and recover organisation, community or individuals to effectively anticipate respond to and recover from the impact of likely or imminent or current disasters.

Commentary

Early Warning Systems

SARC-agreement

The obligation of recording casualties is not an instrument of to reflect disaster victims

Urban Disaster Law

Duty is a conduct and not a result, to shall reduce risk of disaster and harm precaused thereby.

 

The U.?N. Human Rights Council adopted the resolution, which was submitted by the Brazilian and Ecuadorian governments, last month at its headquarters in Geneva. Diplomats say the document could now lay the groundwork for more cities-focused work by the council –>

GOOD NEWS Adopted resolution #L30 – 37th Meeting, 35th Session Human Rights Council http://webtv.un.org/watch/ahrc35l.30rev.1-vote-item3-37th-meeting-35th-regular-session-human-rights-council/548071109600

Can the Sendai framework be enforced? Is there a will to extend the new international treaties within the domestic jurisdiction?

Exploring accountability, implementation and enforcement in the Sendai framework

States have a disaster law impact on human rights not only in their own territories.  Also, often there is an extraterritorial disaster law impact – on people in the rest of the world.

This project aims to provide a critical evaluation of the law and policy of whether and to what extent disaster law vs. human rights law is and should be applicable to states extraterritoriality.

When forced climate migrants decide to make perilous border crossings: the causal role of disaster

Themes:
Climate Change, Community-based DRR, Education & School Safety, Environment & Ecosystems, Gender, Health & Health Facilities, Disaster Risk Management, Critical Infrastructure, Vulnerable Populations, Children and Youth

#ClimateChance #CCAgadir17 #Cities #EUSEW17 #c40cities #NUA #NAU #CCCRdg #Habitat3 #Humanrights

 

#SendaiFramework #Switch2Sendai #Policy #Governance

#Cities #Safety #Arctic #Maritime

#UCEEP

#HumanRights

#DRRplanning

#REinsurance

#Implementation

#EWS #EarlyWarningSystems

#Hazards

#Federation Disaster Law Programme

#RedCross #Oilspills #ocean #ships #environment

#Disasterlaw #UrbanDisasterLaw

#law #disaster #risk #reduction

 

#ENVIRONMENT / @UNFCCC #COP22 Wrap Up | #Marrakech, #Morocco

 ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  , , 

“THIS IS A WARNING TO ALL ‘SECOND CITIES’ OF THE WORLD”

/Climate Change Centre Reading (CCCRdg), who participated in COP 22, which closed on Saturday, 19 November, The meeting rode on the momentum from Paris the uncertainty created by the US election outcome, During the closing plenary, developing countries, expressed concern that this momentum was for post-2020 action, which requires industrialised nations to take the lead.

Produced by Asheline Appleton. Filmed/edited by Herman Njoroge Chege

Below a “glocal” achievment list for local Reading Borough Council and Reading 2050 to commit to of Climate Action Tracker’s ten short-term target, in the footsteps of the Marrakech Vision – http://www.thecvf.org/marrakech-vision

 

1)       Electricity: sustain the growth rate of renewables and other zero and low carbon power until 2025 to reach 100% by 2050

2)      Coal: no new coal plants, reduce emissions from coal by at least 30% by 2025

3)      Road transport: last fossil fuel car sold before 2035

4)      Aviation and shipping: develop and get agreement on a 1.5°C compatible vision

5)      New buildings: all new buildings fossil-free and near zero energy by 2020

6)      Building renovation: increase rates from <1% in 2015 to 5% by 2020

7)      Industry:  all new installations in emissions-intensive sectors are low-carbon after 2020; maximise material efficiency

8)      Reduce emissions from forestry and other land use to 95% below 2010 levels by 2030, stop net deforestation by the 2020s

9)      Commercial agriculture:  keep emissions at or below current levels, establish and disseminate regional best practice, ramp up research

10)  CO2 removal: begin research and planning for negative emissions

Plus

CITY SOLUTIONS FOR AN URBANIZING WORLD
Cities100 proves that innovative and progressive climate action is well underway in cities around the world. Here are 100 solutions from 61 cities which show how local governments around the world are taking the necessary steps to mitigate and adapt to climate change, while at the same time creating valuable co-benefits for their economies, communities and citizens’ health. Click below

/Team Ecopreneurs for the Climate in Reading – Climate Change Centre Reading

Planners – White LED Blue Light and its effect on Humans and Wildlife Habitat

WORLDWIDE LED RESPONSIBILITY

Light affects our health and well-being in many ways. White LED’s with blue-rich spectra are being rolled out over the country at an alarming pace, often without proper health or environmental impact assessments. These white LED’s are detrimental to human and wildlife circadian rhythms as well as the view of our night sky. 1,2,3 , Urgent action is needed to ensure installation of LED lights use a warm-white Correlated Colour Temperature (CCT) ideally 2700K for the benefit of Public Health, Ecology, Road Safety, and Sky Glow.

BLUE_LIGHT

“Lighting planners and policymakers in local government nowadays need to be very careful in choosing the light class as low as possible, in order to avoid unnecessary over sizing, in using Constant Light Output for luminaires, avoiding cold temperature of LEDs and, above all, seizing the importance of using lighting control systems. The good thing about LEDs is that you can dim and switch on/off easily, and this raises the importance of sensors.”~#Alan2016

There are currently very few solutions that successfully combine an understanding of the physiological effects of light with efficiency and aesthetics. Recently, a number of governmental and non-governmental organisations have provided interesting publications which should be taken into consideration to help ensure benign, safe, and pleasant lighting in our outdoor environment. 4,5,6

The American Planning Association (APA) recommends outdoor LED lighting exclude wavelengths below 500 nanometers. The International Dark Sky Association (IDA) recommends a CCT of maximum 3000K to minimise sky glow and the American Medical Association (AMA) has issued guidelines recommending that blue-rich light is reduced as far as possible in order to protect Public Health.

The American Planning Association (APA) recommends outdoor LED lighting exclude wavelengths below 500 nanometers. 5 The International Dark Sky Association (IDA) recommends a CCT of maximum 3000K to minimise sky glow and the American Medical Association (AMA) has issued guidelines recommending that blue-rich light is reduced as far as possible in order to protect Public Health. 7,8,9,10 In the UK, Public Health England are recommending that councils use a warm colour temperature for street lights to miminise glare and discomfort. 4 Unfortunately, street lighting is currently exempt from the UK nuisance regulations which limit the effects of light and noise on people. Due to a lack of clear guidelines from Central Government, notably the Department for Transport, councils often opt for blue-rich white LED street lights, thus increasing light pollution.

An example may be taken from the situation on the Isle of Wight, where high CCT LED outdoor lighting has been installed, and there was little or no public consultation nor any trials prior to implementation. 11 Reading Borough Council is currently planning to install streetlights with a CCT of 4000K, which is above the recommended level of 2700K, despite awareness of Public Health England having advised otherwise. 12 In contrast, best practice of lighting implementation can be found in Cardiff and Westminster Council. In 2014, the Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) sent out a survey which collected responses from over 80 local authorities. CPRE has published a document which provides 9 key recommendations based on this evidence and other evidence directly collected by CPRE. 6

The scientific understanding on the visual and non-visual effects of light forms a strong basis of the recommendations to minimise glare and to minimise spectral intensity below 500nm from artificial night time light.1,2,3,13,14,15,16

In 2014, the Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) sent out a survey which collected responses from over 80 local authorities. CPRE has published a document which provides key recommendations based on this evidence and other evidence directly collected by CPRE:

“It should be clear to planners that outdoor lighting has a multitude of often detrimental effects on the built and natural environments as well as on our health. If existing standards are not adjusted to account for the spectral characteristics of the LED lighting being created and promoted by the lighting industry today, we could, ironically, be faced with higher levels of light pollution, glare, and overlighting…The choice is clear: we can use responsible standards to guide lighting design, or we can continue to allow uncontrolled lighting to degrade our quality of life and negatively impact human health and ecology. Planners have important roles to play in making the former scenario a reality in their communities.” – Bob Parks, APA 5

“Local authorities should give careful consideration to the type of LED lighting they use and consider the potential impacts that higher temperature blue rich lighting has on ecology and on human health… New street lighting should be tested ‘in situ’ before a lighting scheme is rolled out across a wider area to ensure that it is the minimum required for the task and does not cause a nuisance to residents.” – Emma Marington, CPRE 6

The scientific understanding on the visual and non-visual effects of light forms a strong basis of the recommendations to minimise glare and to minimise spectral intensity below 500nm from artificial night time light.

“A National Policy to curb blue-rich light pollution is urgently required”~

 

– Ms Tanja Rebel and Mr Enrico Petrucco, Reading UK

 

All references have been provided as free, full access, internet-accessible sources wherever possible.

  1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0067798
  2. http://www.dynamics.org/~altenber/PROJECTS/MAUI/STARRY_NIGHTS/ARTICLES/Falchi+Cinzano++Haim_limiting.2011.pdf
  3. http://www.johanneroby.net/uploads/3/0/8/8/30887717/lptmm2015-manage-roby.pdf
  4. Public Health England, http://www.lightmare.org/docs/PHE-CIBSE-SLL_LED_report_May2016HRLBL-b.pdf
  5. APA, http://volt.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PAS-Memo_MayJune2014_cr.pdf
  6. CPRE,  http://www.cpre.org.uk/resources/countryside/dark-skies/item/download/3497
  7. IDA, http://bit.ly/28L65Us
  8. IDA guide, http://darksky.org/lighting/led-practical-guide
  9. AMA, http://bit.ly/1XZzsz3
  10. AMA statement, http://www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/news/news/2016/2016-06-14-community-guidance-street-lighting.page
  11. https://isleofwight.greenparty.org.uk/files/IsleOfWight/Street-lighting-are-we-in-the-dark.pdf
  12. http://www.reading.gov.uk/media/5523/Item-1A/pdf/Item01A.pdf
  13. http://www.sps.ch/en/articles/various-articles/ueber-den-einfluss-des-lichtes-auf-den-menschen/lighting-application-for-non-visual-effects-of-light
  14. http://m.pnas.org/content/112/4/1232.full
  15. http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/6/e1600377.full
  16. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022407313004792

Regional Government of Andalusia [PDF]
DECLARATION ON THE USE OF BLUE-RICH WHITE LIGHT SOURCES FOR NIGHTTIME LIGHTING

 

Additional Internet Links and Public Opinion:

https://fluxometer.com/rainbow/#!id=iPad%20Pro/6500K-iPad%20Pro<https://fluxometer.com/rainbow/#%21id=iPad%20Pro/6500K-iPad%20Pro

http://bizled.co.in/bright-bluish-white-leds-disrupt-sleep-says-us-medical-body

http://www.iac.es/adjuntos/otpc/International_Declaration_on_Blue-Rich_Light.pdf

http://www.concordmonitor.com/s-2985214

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/opposition-calls-for-suspension-of-montreals-led-streetlights-project<http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/opposition-calls-for-suspension-of-montreals-led-streetlights-project

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/montreals-push-for-outdoor-led-lights-isnt-just-a-night-sky-problem-its-unhealthy-scientists-warn

http://spie.org/newsroom/technical-articles/1015-led-light-pollution

http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/tilehurst-dog-walker-says-new-11220460

http://www.flagstaffdarkskies.org/for-wonks/lamp-spectrum-light-pollution

http://www.ledsmagazine.com/articles/print/volume-12/issue-10/features/street-lights/light-pollution-depends-on-the-light-source-cct.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/streetlights-disrupt-sleep_us_56d51092e4b03260bf780136?ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067

http://uk.businessinsider.com/astronaut-photos-light-polution-led-nasa-esa-2015-8

#Climate Change Prevention Judicial Review Seed Fund

If you missed… COP 21

Here is you chance to pledge against, give an adequate response to the Paris Agreement’s weak unbinding content,

Poster_Gaiadoc

http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/climatechangepreventionjudicialreviewseedfund

The crowd funding web page is up and running and our work is currently stalled due to lack of funds, please donate to our crowdfunder to kick start our critical legal action. When you pledge your donation you will automatically become a member of the Judicial Review Supporters Group or you can do it anonymously as suits you. The funding will allow us to initiate a process that overturns the Paris Agreement so frackers, oil men and rainforest eating ranchers can’t just keep destroying. Safeguarding our children requires this action as confronting climate change issues and laying the foundations for a safe future by shifting to clean, safe, affordable #energy needs drastic legal action now.

Safeguarding of the planet and the conditions of life on Earth is everyone’s concern. — These are first steps in getting real action on climate change in 2016.

This is a matter of extreme urgency as time is fast running out to take the drastic steps. Please share it with friends and colleagues. Thank you so much for your time and donation.

For immediate Release GaiaDoc.org

For immediate Release

GaiaDoc.org has launched a fit for purpose replacement text for #COP21 #Paris2015 Urgent International Draft

EMERGENCY CLIMATE CHANGE PREVENTION CHARTER (CCPC) .pdf

For-immediate-Release-GaiaDoc

Source: GaiaDoc.org

 

 

7 MARCH – Join the Car-Free Work-Day Bloc @ Time To Act National Climate March!

In our efforts to motivate as many people as possible to leave the car for a day and join in our Car-Free Days, Climate Change Centre Reading (CCCRdg) has taken a huge lap forward by campaigning for Car-Free Days until the end of the year.

Yes, we are proud of announcing CCCRdg supporting the Join the Car-Free Work-Day Bloc @ Time To Act National Climate March!

BREAKING: Please see our press release below, we hope you will find the piece interesting,

Climate Change – It’ s time for decisions now! not waste billions on campaigning.

The Future of Places

Join us at the Car-Free Work-Day Bloc on the Time to Act Climate demonstration on 7th March!

Details

12.30pm, Saturday 7th March

Lincoln’s Inn Fields [map]

Nearest tube: Holborn

Join the facebook group here

Let´s work together to help achieve this, it will be an important step in solving and laying a just and fair developing pathway, switching to zero carbon fuels.

Learn about the fossil fuels problems, that causing climate change in our local community and further afield, and what we in the local community are doing, and can do to help tackle such matters.

2015 CHANGE will honour the 2-degree Celsius limit as a limit to safeguard the world environment in Togethernessship 😉

BREAKING: CCCRdg has launched a campaign for a national “Monthly Car-Free Work-Day in the UK”  

A regular car-free work-day in Reading and UK could fuel an International monthly Car-Free Work-Day which could be an astonishing example of traffic development and public realm. Reading has great potential to embrace the sustainable pathway and become a British role-model in climate change (the air is our all urban common) to honour a successful climate change agreement taking place in Paris December 2015.

Ecological Economics

On behalf of Climate Change Centre Reading, I urge you to watch this, Top video of what is happening now with the planet featuring Professor Paul Beckwith, who was in Peru in Dec. 2014 at the UN Climate Change Conference with the Arctic Methane Emergency Group. Now methane is being released in record amounts from various places around the planet. #climatechange #methane #abruptclimatechange

Arctic_methane_emergency

http://unfccc6.meta-fusion.com/cop20/events/2014-12-06-12-00-abibimman-foundation-arctic-methane-emergency

CLIMATE CHANGE IT´S #TIMETOACT2015 – MARCH 7TH – SAVE THE DATE

#TIMETOACT2015

Every day more and more people are waking up to climate change. What scientists predicted decades ago is happening right now. And we have little time left to advert catastrophe. But those in power have not yet woken up, or are unwilling to act.

On March 7th, two months before the election, we will take to the streets of London in a creative mass action. We will set out clearly what must happen now to cut emissions and build a better future. No more half-hearted promises: it´s Time to Act on Climate change.

Join the Car-Free Work-Day Bloc @ Time To Act  National Climate March!
Event – https://www.facebook.com/events/632679746859395/

2015 is a crucial year for the climate. in the UK, we must tell politicians seeking election that there is no mandate for climate-wrecking business as usual. Then at UN talks in Paris in December, governments will come together to strike a deal for the climate.

Our future is at stake.

Find out how you can help:
www.campaigncc.org

Welcome to Join our local facebook group “Climate Change Reading”https://www.facebook.com/groups/CCCRdg.community/

Time for the topic “Climate News” in the daily news flow

Time for the topic “Climate News” in the daily news flow

May 12, 2014

DEBATE. Party leaders’ debates is an embarrassing evidence of how little interest the first generation of climate-conscious shows in the subject environment. It writes Helen Rosell who is the writer and composer with great interest in environmental issues.

After only 50 years of intensive industrialization, we have found out that with current politics and lifestyle will pass the 2-degree target and instead are heading for 4 degrees.

We have found out that it means a disaster for all humanity.

We have found out that we already would have to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and that human civilization can not handle 4 degrees (desperate message on 2-degree target, SVT.se September 28, 2013).

We have learned that we are close to many “tipping points” where the climate can shift to a mode of self-reinforcing mechanisms, and never able to recover.

We know that climate change is already negative for food production in the world, crop yields are affected, increasing emissions.

We have heard about the risk of future mass migrations, strife, rising sea levels, fires, droughts, floods, water scarcity, ocean acidification, melting of ice … but there is no policy that indicates that we are on track to break the trend.

Instead, increases carbon emissions in an exponentially rising curve.

SO WHAT? Who cares?

One feature of CLIMATE NEWS in the daily news flow – and no longer would be able to miss the ocean acidification and impoverishment, whisk away the food question or dilemma melting ice affecting the global climate and ecological balance. It would kick start vital debates, bringing the population and provide “the sleeping people” something extremely important to talk about and get involved in. No one could escape the questions anymore.

… Not even the politicians.

What news could well be more important?

Text: Helen Rosell

via Helen Rosell: Time for the topic “Climate News” in the daily news flow.

According To A Nasa Funded Study, We’re Pretty Much Screwed by I Fucking Love Science

by Stephen Luntz
Aralship

Photo credit: Staecker. The demise of the Aral sea could be a foretaste of the future if we don’t change the way society works

Our industrial civilization faces the same threats of collapse that earlier versions such as the Mayans experienced, a study to be published in Ecological Economics has warned. The idea is far from new, but the authors have put new rigor to the study of how so many previous societies collapsed, and why ours could follow.

Lead author Mr Safa Motesharrei is no wild-eyed conspiracy theorist. Motesharrei is a graduate student in mathematics at the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, a National Science Foundation-supported institution, and the research was done with funding from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

“The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent,” the forthcoming paper states

Two key social features are identified that contributed to the collapse of every civilization studied: “The stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity,” and “The economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or “Commoners”) [poor]”.

If these look familiar, so do the factors that make up the resource side of the equation, with climatic change, and scarcity of water and energy key among them, although for others climate variation was a matter of bad luck, rather than their own actions.

The model Motesharrei used, Human And Nature Dynamics (HANDY), explores the relationship between population and resources, drawing heavily on predator-prey models used by ecologists. Four key factors were included in the model: Elites, Commoners, nature and wealth. Equations of how these interact were created with varying inputs. The outcomes were not pretty. The timing and shape of collapses varied, but the societies that most closely resembled our own doomed themselves, through overuse of resources exacerbated by economic stratification.

In one scenario many commoners do make it into the elite population at year 750, but the “scarcity of workers” caused a collapse by year 1000. In another so many of the Earth’s resources are consumed that society, and the ecology of the planet, are doomed by the year 500.

“It is important to note that in both of these scenarios, the Elites — due to their wealth — do not suffer the detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much later than the Commoners,” the paper notes.

If those year numbers seem comfortingly far off, be aware that the year zero in these models is well behind us. Nevertheless, contrary to much of the reporting, the model does not provide a useful timeline for when we can expect to see the world we live in turn into something that resembles a post-apocalyptic nightmare, although studies of the convergence of climate and resource challenges suggest we may witness drastic food crises within a little over a decade.

In every economic bubble people looking back to past crashes are told “this time it is different”. Certainly some things have changed for modern civilization compared to the others Motesharrei has looked at. Technological developments that provide access to greater resources is the most frequently mentioned difference. Motesharrei responds, “Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use.”

One advantage we do have, however, is much greater knowledge of what has gone wrong in the past, and therefore the capacity to build models like HANDY. In a presentation of an earlier draft of this work in 2012 Motesharrei noted, “Simple models provide a great intuition and can teach us invaluable points. It is crucial to have a measure that can give us an early warning of collapse. Carrying Capacity tells us when overshoot happens, and this can be defined by noticing the decline in wealth.”

Some coverage of the announcement has described disaster as inevitable, but that is not the paper’s conclusion at all. “Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion,” it argues.

Although the study has reportedly passed peer review it is yet to be published. It received global attention after a pre-release version was provided to The Guardian.

Update: NASA has issued a clarification stressing that this study does not necessarily represent NASA’s viewpoint. Noting that they fund many studies they stress it “was not solicited, directed or reviewed by NASA”. The funding came about because the project was “utilizing research tools developed for a separate NASA activity.” The clarification points out, “As is the case with all independent research, the views and conclusions in the paper are those of the authors alone.”

via According To A Nasa Funded Study, We’re Pretty Much Screwed | I Fucking Love Science.